Current situation and Prospect of aluminum industr

Current situation and Prospect of China's aluminum industry development

since entering the 21st century, China's aluminum industry has shown a rapid development momentum. From 2000 to 2011, China's alumina output increased from 4.328 million tons to 34.078 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum increased from 2.794 million tons to 17.786 million tons, an increase of 6.87 times and 5.37 times respectively. China has become a big country in aluminum production and processing. However, there are many problems in China's aluminum industry, such as overcapacity, high dependence on foreign raw materials, and high-precision processing technology still lags behind the world's advanced level

development status of China's aluminum industry

1. Rapid development and overcapacity

China's aluminum industry has experienced a period of rapid development after entering the 21st century. From 2000 to 2011, the annual average growth rate of China's alumina and electrolytic aluminum output reached 21% and 18% respectively. The rapid development of the aluminum industry ensures the demand for aluminum in the national economy. However, due to the rapid investment and the weak growth of demand affected by economic slowdown and other factors, the production capacity of China's aluminum industry has been the goal we have been pursuing in recent years, with serious excess. It is estimated that by the end of 2011, the country has formed 52.2 million tons of alumina capacity, 25.5 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity and 32 million tons of aluminum capacity. Compared with the output, the capacity utilization rates of alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum in 2011 were only 65%, 70% and 87.5% respectively. In fact, the rapid development of the aluminum industry has made the aluminum supply exceed the market demand, the aluminum price (15280,15.00,0.10%) is low, and the aluminum enterprises are difficult to operate

2. Heavy dependence on foreign raw materials

the total reserves of bauxite resources in China are close to 4 billion tons, but they still cannot meet the raw material demand of the domestic aluminum industry. In 2000, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was only 2.794 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate of alumina reached 71%. However, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum developed too fast, and the supply of alumina soon fell short of demand. In 2004, the alumina produced in China can only meet 49% of the needs of electrolytic aluminum production. In recent years, the increase of alumina production in China has increased the self-sufficiency rate of alumina to 201, which can be divided into the following three categories: 90% in one year, and the import volume has decreased. But at the same time, the problem of bauxite shortage has become prominent. From 2006 to 2011, China's self-produced bauxite can only meet about 40% of domestic demand. In 2011, China imported 45.23 million tons of bauxite and 1.88 million tons of alumina, and the external dependence of electrolytic aluminum raw materials reached 61.5%

3. the industrial structure tends to be reasonable

at present, many technologies in China's aluminum industry are at the world's leading level. From the perspective of energy-saving technology of electrolytic aluminum, technologies such as special-shaped cathode electrolyzer, new structure diversion tank, current efficient energy-saving control and so on are widely used; Large prebaked cell has become the mainstream, and the world's first 500ka prebaked cell has been put into industrial production in Chinalco Liancheng branch. In 2011, the average power consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China was 13900 degrees, which is close to the best level in the world. The concentration of aluminum industry has been greatly improved. At the end of 2011, the top ten enterprises with electrolytic aluminum production capacity accounted for 64.36% of the total production capacity. In terms of factor allocation, electrolytic aluminum production is also developing to the western region, which is rich in energy and cheap

analysis of future change factors

1. Electricity price affects the cost of electrolytic aluminum

in the production cost of electrolytic aluminum, electricity and alumina are two large blocks. According to the current market situation, electricity accounts for more than 50% of the total production cost, and alumina accounts for more than one third. The electricity price is in the process of long-term rise, which will put pressure on the operating costs of electrolytic aluminum enterprises

2. Bauxite exporting country policy

China's bauxite import dependence is high, and the supply of bauxite is stable. Oxfab is a proprietary process used by OPM company to print PEKK materials, which largely depends on the bauxite exporting country policy. China's bauxite imports mainly come from Indonesia, Australia, Fiji, Jamaica and other countries, of which Indonesia accounts for the largest share, accounting for 75% of the total imports from January to August this year. However, Indonesia's bauxite export policy has changed. From May 1 this year, the export of unprocessed metal ores, including bauxite, was prohibited. Later, although some exports were allowed, higher export taxes were levied

3. domestic demand depends on the economic boom

as an important basic industrial raw material, aluminum is widely used in all fields of national economic construction, and the economic boom directly affects domestic aluminum demand. At present, construction, transportation, electricity The machinery industry is the four pillars of domestic demand for aluminum products. Jochenfoe El said: "At first, it was known that BASF provided materials for furniture manufacturing, accounting for 68% of the total demand. The prosperity of these four industries has the most important impact on aluminum demand. China's economic development has slowed down since 2011, and China's domestic aluminum demand is unlikely to achieve rapid growth for a considerable period of time.

4. Trade protectionism affects aluminum exports

at present, China has become the world's major aluminum products One of the production and supply countries, but the export of aluminum products has been affected by the rise of trade protectionism in some importing countries. In recent years, the United States has continuously launched anti-dumping investigations on China's non-ferrous metal products. India, Australia, Colombia, Europe and other countries have set up anti-dumping, countervailing and other trade barrier measures for China's aluminum exports. The export of China's aluminum products has been affected, and this state has a further development trend

conclusion

the development of China's aluminum industry has achieved remarkable results, but the problem of overcapacity is also serious. The situation of supply exceeding demand has led to low product prices and serious operating losses for aluminum enterprises. To solve this problem, the growth of domestic demand is an important direction. The aluminum industry itself must also limit the growth of production capacity and moderately speed up the elimination of excess production capacity. At the same time, China's aluminum industry should also constantly improve its technical level, strive to reduce costs, respond to the rise in energy prices, and prepare for the possible shortage of bauxite in terms of business strategy